Monday, June 28, 2010

National Litigation Policy

National Litigation Policy
Posted On : Jun 24, 2010

National Legal Mission to Reduce Average Pendency Time from 15 Years to 3 Years

National Litigation Policy Document Released

The Centre has formulated a National Litigation Policy to reduce the cases pending in various courts in India under the National Legal Mission to reduce average pendency time from 15 years to 3 years. This was announced by Dr.M.Veerappa Moily, Minister of Law and Justice while announcing the National Litigation Policy here today. Following is the full text of the National Litigation Policy.

NATIONAL LITIGATION POLICY

Table of Contents

I. Introduction – The National Litigation Policy

II. The Vision/Mission

III.Government Representation

IV.Adjournments

V.Pleadings/Counters

VI. Filing of Appeals

VII.Limitation : Delayed Appeals

VIII. Alternative Dispute Resolution – Arbitration

IX.Specialized Litigation

X.Review of Pending Cases



I.INTRODUCTION

Whereas at the National Consultation for Strengthening the Judiciary toward Reducing Pendency and Delays held on the 24th and 25th October, 2009 the Union Minister for Law and Justice, presented resolutions which were adopted by the entire Conference unanimously.

And Wherein the said Resolution acknowledged the initiative undertaken by the Government of India to frame a National Litigation Policy with a view to ensure conduct of responsible litigation by the Central Government and urges every State Government to evolve similar policies.

The National Litigation Policy is as follows:-

I. THE VISION/MISSION

1. The National Litigation Policy is based on the recognition that Government and its various agencies are the pre-dominant litigants in courts and Tribunals in the country. Its aim is to transform Government into anEfficient and Responsible litigant. This policy is also based on the recognition that it is the responsibility of the Government to protect the rights of citizens, to respect fundamental rights and those in charge of the conduct of Government litigation should never forget this basic principle.

“EFFICIENT LITIGANT” MEANS

- Focusing on the core issues involved in the litigation and addressing them squarely.
- Managing and conducting litigation in a cohesive, coordinated and time-bound manner.
- Ensuring that good cases are won and bad cases are not needlessly persevered with.
- A litigant who is represented by competent and sensitive legal persons: competent in their skills and sensitive to the facts that Government is not an ordinary litigant and that a litigation does not have to be won at any cost.

“RESPONSIBLE LITIGANT” MEANS

- That litigation will not be resorted to for the sake of litigating.
- That false pleas and technical points will not be taken and shall be discouraged.
- Ensuring that the correct facts and all relevant documents will be placed before the court.
- That nothing will be suppressed from the court and there will be no attempt to mislead any court or Tribunal.

2. Government must cease to be a compulsive litigant. The philosophy that matters should be left to the courts for ultimate decision has to be discarded. The easy approach, “Let the court decide,” must be eschewed and condemned.

3. The purpose underlying this policy is also to reduce Government litigation in courts so that valuable court time would be spent in resolving other pending cases so as to achieve the Goal in the National Legal Mission to reduce average pendency time from 15 years to 3 years. Litigators on behalf of Government have to keep in mind the principles incorporated in the National mission for judicial reforms which includes identifying bottlenecks which the Government and its agencies may be concerned with and also removing unnecessary Government cases. Prioritisation in litigation has to be achieved with particular emphasis on welfare legislation, social reform, weaker sections and senior citizens and other categories requiring assistance must be given utmost priority.

4. The Stakeholders:

A) In ensuring the success of this policy, all stake holders will have to play their part – the Ministry of Law & Justice, Heads of various Departments, Law Officers and Government Counsel, and individual officers all connected with the concerned litigation. The success of this policy will depend on its strict implementation. Nodal Officers will be appointed by Heads of Department.

“Head of Department” means the administrative person ultimately responsible for the working of the Department or Agency, as the case may be.

B) The appointment of Nodal Officers must be done carefully. The Nodal Officer has a crucial and important role to play in the overall and specific implementation of this Policy, including but not limited to the references made hereinafter. Every Ministry must be mindful of the responsibility to appoint proper Nodal Officers who have legal background and expertise. They must be in a position to pro-actively manage litigation. Whilst making such appointments, care must be taken to see that there is continuity in the incumbents holding office. Frequent changes in persons holding the position must be avoided. Nodal Officers must also be subjected to training so that they are in a position to understand what is expected of them under the National Litigation Policy.

C) Accountability is the touch-stone of this Policy. Accountability will be at various levels; at the level of officers in charge of litigation, those responsible for defending cases, all the lawyers concerned and Nodal Officers. As part of accountability, there must be critical appreciation on the conduct of cases. Good cases which have been lost must be reviewed and subjected to detailed scrutiny to ascertain responsibility. Upon ascertainment of responsibility, suitable action will have to be taken. Complacency must be eliminated and replaced by commitment.

D) There will be Empowered Committees to monitor the implementation of this Policy and accountability. The Nodal Officers and the Heads of Department will ensure that all relevant data is sent to the Empowered Committees. The Empowered Committee at the National level shall be chaired by the Attorney General for India and such other members not exceeding six in number as may be nominated by the Ministry of Law with an Additional Secretary to be the Member Secretary. There will be four Regional Empowered Committees to be chaired by an Additional Solicitor General nominated by the Ministry of Law. It shall include all the Assistant Solicitors General of the Region and such other members including a Member Secretary nominated by the Ministry of Law. The Regional Committees shall submit monthly reports to the National Empowered Committee which shall in turn submit Comprehensive Reports to the Ministry of Law. It shall be the responsibility of the Empowered Committee to receive and deal with suggestions and complaints including from litigants and Government Departments and take appropriate measures in connection therewith.

II. GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATION

A) While it is recognized that Government Panels are a broad based opportunity for a cross section of lawyers, Government Panels cannot be vehicles for sustaining incompetent and inefficient persons. Persons who recommend names for inclusion on the Panel are requested to be careful in making such recommendations and to take care to check the credentials of those recommended with particular reference to legal knowledge and integrity.

B) Screening Committees for constitution of Panels will be introduced at every level to assess the skills and capabilities of people who are desirous of being on Government Panels before their inclusion on the Panel. The Ministry of Law shall ensure that the constitution of Screening Committees will include representatives of the Department concerned. The Screening Committees will make their recommendations to the Ministry of Law. Emphasis will be on identifying areas of core competence, domain expertise and areas of specialisation. It cannot be assumed that all lawyers are capable of conducting every form of litigation.

C) Government advocates must be well equipped and provided with adequate infrastructure. Efforts will be made to provide the agencies which conduct Government litigation with modern technology such as computers, internet links, etc. Common research facilities must be made available for Government lawyers as well as equipment for producing compilations of cases.

D) Training programs, seminars, workshops and refresher courses for Government advocates must be encouraged. There must be continuing legal education for Government lawyers with particular emphasis on identifying and improving areas of specialization. Law schools will be associated in preparing special courses for training of Government lawyers with particular emphasis on identifying and improving areas of specialization. Most importantly, there must be an effort to cultivate andinstill values required for effective Government representation.

E) National and regional conferences of Government advocates will be organized so that matters of mutual interest can be discussed and problems analysed.

F) Advocates on Record must play a meaningful role in Government litigations. They cannot continue to be merely responsible for filing appearances in Court. A system of motivation has to be worked out for Government advocates under which initiative and hard work will be recognised and extraordinary work will be rewarded. This could be in the form of promotions or out of turn increments.

G) It will be the responsibility of all Law Officers to train Panel lawyers and to explain to them what is expected of them in the discharge of their functions.

H) Panels will be drawn up of willing, energetic and competent lawyers to develop special skills in drafting pleadings on behalf of Government. Such Panels shall be flexible. More and more advocates must be encouraged to get on to such Panels by demonstrating keenness, knowledge and interest.

I) Nodal Officers will be responsible for active case management. This will involve constant monitoring of cases particularly to examine whether cases have gone “off track” or have been unnecessarily delayed.

J) Incomplete briefs are frequently given to Government Counsel. This must be discontinued. The Advocates-on-Record will be held responsible if incomplete briefs are given. It is the responsibility of the person in charge of the Central Agency concerned, to ensure that proper records are kept of cases filed and that copies retained by the Department are complete and tally with what has been filed in Court. If any Department or Agency has a complaint in this regard it can complain to the Empowered Committee.

K) There should be equitable distribution of briefs so that there will be broad based representation of Government. Additional Solicitors General will be associated with regard to distribution of briefs in the High Court. Complaints that certain Panel advocates are being preferred in the matter of briefing will be inquired into seriously by the Empowered Committee.

L) Government lawyers are expected to discharge their obligations with a sense of responsibility towards the court as well as to Government. If concessions are made on issues of fact or law, and it is found that such concessions were not justified, the matter will be reported to the Empowered Committee and remedial action would follow.

M) While Government cannot pay fees which private litigants are in a position to pay, the fees payable to Government lawyers will be suitably revised to make it remunerative. Optimum utilisation of available resources and elimination of wastage will itself provide for adequate resources for revision of fees. It should be ensured that the fees stipulated as per the Schedule of Fees should be paid within a reasonable time. Malpractice in relation to release of payments must be eliminated.

III. ADJOURNMENTS

A) Accepting that frequent adjournments are resorted to by Government lawyers, unnecessary and frequent adjournments will be frowned upon and infractions dealt with seriously.

B) In fresh litigations where the Government is a Defendant or a Respondent in the first instance, a reasonable adjournment may be applied for, for obtaining instructions. However, it must be ensured that such instructions are made available and communicated before the next date of hearing. If instructions are not forthcoming, the matter must be reported to the Nodal Officer and if necessary to the Head of the Department.

C) In Appellate Courts, if the paper books are complete, then adjournments must not be sought in routine course. The matter must be dealt with at the first hearing itself. In such cases, adjournments should be applied for only if a specific query from the court is required to be answered and for this, instructions have to be obtained.

D) One of the functions of the Nodal Officers will be to coordinate the conduct of litigation. It will also be their responsibility to monitor the progress of litigation, particularly to identify cases in which repeated adjournments are taken. It will be the responsibility of the Nodal Officer to report cases of repeated and unjustified adjournments to the Head of Department and it shall be open to him to call for reasons for the adjournment. The Head of the Agency shall ensure that the Records of the case reflect reasons for adjournment, if these are repeated adjournments. Serious note will be taken of cases of negligence or default and the matter will be dealt with appropriately by referring such cases to the Empowered Committee. If the advocates are at fault, action against them may entail suspension/removal of their names from Government Panels.

E) Cases in which costs are awarded against the Government as a condition of grant of adjournment will be viewed very seriously. In all such cases the Head of Department must give a report to the Empowered Committee of the reasons why such costs were awarded. The names of the persons responsible for the default entailing the imposition of costs will be identified. Suitable action must be taken against them.

IV. PLEADINGS / COUNTERS

A) Suits or other proceedings initiated by or on behalf of Government have to be drafted with precision and clarity. There should be no repetition either in narration of facts or in the grounds.

B) Appeals will be drafted with particular attention to the Synopsis and List of Dates which will carefully crystallise the facts in dispute and the issues involved. Slipshod and loose drafting will be taken serious note of. Defaulting advocates may be suspended/removed from the Panels.

C) Care must be taken to include all necessary and relevant documents in the appeal paper book. If it is found that any such documents are not annexed and this entails an adjournment or if the court adversely comments on this, the matter will be enquired into by the Nodal Officer and reported to the Head of Department for suitable action.

D) It is noticed that Government documentation in court is untidy, haphazard and incomplete, full of typing errors and blanks. Special formats for Civil Appeals, Special Leave Petitions, Counter Affidavits will be formulated and circulated by way of guidance and instruction as a Government Advocates Manual. This will include not only contents but also the format, design, font size, quality of paper, printing, binding and presentation. It is the joint responsibility of the Drafting Counsel and the Advocate on Record to ensure compliance.

E) Counter Affidavits in important cases will not be filed unless the same are shown to and vetted by Law Officers. This should, however, not delay the filing of counters.

V. FILING OF APPEALS

A) Appeals will not be filed against ex parte ad interim orders. Attempt must first be to have the order vacated. An appeal must be filed against an order only if the order is not vacated and the continuation of such order causes prejudice.

B) Appeals must be filed intra court in the first instance. Direct appeals to the Supreme Court must not be resorted to except in extraordinary cases.

C) Given that Tribunalisation is meant to remove the loads from Courts, challenge to orders of Tribunals should be an exception and not a matter of routine.

D) In Service Matters, no appeal will be filed in cases where:

a) the matter pertains to an individual grievance without any major repercussion;

b) the matter pertains to a case of pension or retirement benefits without involving any principle and without setting any precedent or financial implications.

E) Further, proceedings will not be filed in service matters merely because the order of the Administrative Tribunal affects a number of employees. Appeals will not be filed to espouse the cause of one section of employees against another.

F) Proceedings will be filed challenging orders of Administrative Tribunals only if

a) There is a clear error of record and the finding has been entered against the Government.

b) The judgment of the Tribunal is contrary to a service rule or its interpretation by a High Court or the Supreme Court.

c) The judgment would impact the working of the administration in terms of morale of the service, the Government is compelled to file a petition; or

d) If the judgment will have recurring implications upon other cadres or if the judgment involves huge financial claims being made.

G) Appeals in Revenue matters will not be filed:

a) if the stakes are not high and are less than that amount to be fixed by the Revenue Authorities;

b) If the matter is covered by a series of judgments of the Tribunal or of the High Courts which have held the field and which have not been challenged in the Supreme Court;

c) where the assessee has acted in accordance with long standing industry practice;

d) merely because of change of opinion on the part of jurisdictional officers.

H) Appeals will not be filed in the Supreme Court unless:

a) the case involves a question of law;

b) If it is a question of fact, the conclusion of the fact is so perverse that an honest judicial opinion could not have arrived at that conclusion;

c) Where public finances are adversely affected;

d) Where there is substantial interference with public justice;

e) Where there is a question of law arising under the Constitution;

f) Where the High Court has exceeded its jurisdiction;

g) Where the High Court has struck down a statutory provision as ultra vires;

h) Where the interpretation of the High Court is plainly erroneous.

I) In each case, there will be a proper certification of the need to file an appeal. Such certification will contain brief but cogent reasons in support. At the same time, reasons will also be recorded as to why it was not considered fit or proper to file an appeal.

VI. LIMITATION : DELAYED APPEALS

A) It is recognized that good cases are being lost because appeals are filed well beyond the period of limitation and without any proper explanation for the delay or without a proper application for condonation of delay. It is recognized that such delays are not always bonafide particularly in cases where high revenue stakes are involved.

B) Each Head of Department will be required to call for details of cases filed on behalf of the Department and to maintain a record of cases which have been dismissed on the ground of delay. The Nodal Officers must submit a report in every individual case to the Head of Department explaining all the reasons for such delay and identifying the persons/causes responsible. Every such case will be investigated and if it is found that the delay was notbonafide, appropriate action must be taken. Action will be such that it operates as a deterrent for unsatisfactory work and malpractices in the conduct of Government litigation. For this purpose, obtaining of the data and fixing of responsibility will play a vital role. Data must be obtained on a regular basis annually, bi-monthly or quarterly.

C) Applications for condonation of delay are presently drafted in routine terms without application of mind and resorting to word processed “boiler plate.” This practice must immediately stop. It is responsibility of the drafting counsel to carefully draft an application for condonation of delay, identifying the areas of delay and identifying the causes with particularity. Drafting advocates who fail to adhere to this may be suspended/removedfrom the Panel.

D) Every attempt must be made to reduce delays in filing appeals/applications. It shall be responsibility of each Head of Department to work out an appropriate system for elimination of delays and ensure its implementation.

E) Belated appeals filed beyond the period of limitation cannot be approached merely from the point of view that courts have different approaches towards condonation of delay. Since some courts liberally grant condonation of delay, a general apathy seems to have taken over. The tendency on the part of Government counsel to expect leniency towards Government for condonation of delay must be discouraged. The question of limitation and delay must be approached on the premise that every court will be strict with regard to condonation of delay.

VII. ALTERNATIVE DISPUTE RESOLUTION

ARBITRATION

A) More and more Government departments and PSUs are resorting to arbitration particularly in matters of drilling contracts, hire of ships, construction of highways, etc. Careful drafting of commercial contracts, including arbitration agreements must be given utmost priority. The Ministry of Law and Justice recognizes that it has a major role to play in this behalf.

B) The resort to arbitration as an alternative dispute resolution mechanism must be encouraged at every level, but this entails the responsibility that such an arbitration will be cost effective, efficacious, expeditious, and conducted with high rectitude. In most cases arbitration has become a mirror of court litigation. This must be stopped.

C) It is recognized that the conduct of arbitration at present leaves a lot to be desired. Arbitrations are needlessly dragged on for various reasons. One of them is by repeatedly seeking adjournments. This practice must be deplored and stopped.

D) The Head of Department will call for the data of pending arbitrations. Copies of the roznama, etc. (record of proceedings) must be obtained to find out why arbitrations are delayed and ascertain who is responsible for adjournments. Advocates found to be conducting arbitrations lethargically and inefficiently must not only be removed from the conduct of such cases but also not briefed in future arbitrations. It shall be the responsibility of the Head of Department to call for regular review meetings to assess the status of pending arbitration cases.

E) Lack of precision in drafting arbitration agreements is a major cause of delay in arbitration proceedings. This leads to disputes about appointment of arbitrators and arbitrability which results in prolonged litigation even before the start of arbitration. Care must be taken whilst drafting an arbitration agreement. It must correctly and clearly reflect the intention of the parties particularly if certain items are required to be left to the decision of named persons such as engineers are not meant to be referred to arbitration.

F) Arbitration agreements are loosely and carelessly drafted when it comes to appointment of arbitrators. Arbitration agreements must reflect a well defined procedure for appointment of arbitrators. Sole arbitrator may be preferred over a Panel of three Arbitrators. In technical matters, reference may be made to trained technical persons instead of retired judicial persons.

G) It is also found that certain persons are “preferred” as arbitrators by certain departments or corporations. The arbitrator must be chosen solely on the basis of knowledge, skill and integrity and not for extraneous reasons. It must be ascertained whether the arbitrator will be in a position to devote time for expeditious disposal of the reference.

H) It is found that if an arbitration award goes against Government it is almost invariably challenged by way of objections filed in the arbitration. Very often these objections lack merit and the grounds do not fall within the purview of the scope of challenge before the courts. Routine challenge to arbitration awards must be discouraged. A clear formulation of the reasons to challenge Awards must precede the decision to file proceedings to challenge the Awards.

VIII. SPECIALISED LITIGATION

A) Proceedings seeking judicial review including in the matter of award of contracts or tenders.

Such matters should be defended keeping in mind Constitutional imperatives and good governance. If the proceedings are founded on an allegation of the breach of natural justice and it is found that there is substance in the allegations, the case shall not be proceeded with and the order may be set aside to provide for a proper hearing in the matter. Cases where projects may be held up have to be defended vigorously keeping in mind public interest. They must be dealt with and disposed off as expeditiously as possible.

B) Cases involving vires, or statutes or rules and regulations.

In all such cases, proper affidavits should be filed explaining the rationale between the statute or regulation and also making appropriate averments with regard to legislative competence.

C) PUBLIC INTEREST LITIGATIONS (PILS)

- Public Interest Litigations must be approached in a balanced manner. On the one hand, PILs should not be taken as matters of convenience to let the courts do what Government finds inconvenient. It is recognized that the increase in PILs stems from a perception that there is governmental inaction. This perception must be changed. It must be recognized that several PILs are filed for collateral reasons including publicity and at the instance of third parties. Such litigation must be exposed as being notbonafide.

- PILs challenging public contracts must be seriously defended. If interim orders are passed stopping such projects then appropriate conditions must be insisted upon for the Petitioners to pay compensation if the PIL is ultimately rejected.

D) PSU LITIGATIONS
- Litigation between Public Sector Undertakings inter se between Government Public Sector Undertakings is causing great concern. Every effort must be made to prevent such litigation. Before initiating such litigation, the matter must be placed before the highest authority in the public sector such as the CMD or MD. It will be his responsibility to endeavour to see whether the litigation can be avoided. If litigation cannot be avoided, then alternative dispute resolution methods like mediation must be considered. Section 89 of the Code of Civil Procedure must be resorted to extensively.

IX. REVIEW OF PENDING CASES

A) All pending cases involving Government will be reviewed. This Due Diligence process shall involve drawing upon statistics of all pending matters which shall be provided for by all Government departments (including PSUs). The Office of the Attorney General and the Solicitor General shall also be responsible for reviewing all pending cases and filtering frivolous and vexatious matters from the meritorious ones.

B) Cases will be grouped and categorized. The practice of grouping should be introduced whereby cases should be assigned a particular number ofidentity according to the subject and statute involved. In fact, further sub-grouping will also be attempted. To facilitate this process, standard forms must be devised which lawyers have to fill up at the time of filing of cases. Panels will be set up to implement categorization, review such cases to identify cases which can be withdrawn. These include cases which are covered by decisions of courts and cases which are found without merit withdrawn. This must be done in a time bound fashion.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Women in the Armed Forces : Misconceptions and Facts

Women in the Armed Forces : Misconceptions and Facts

By Major General Mrinal Suman, AVSM, VSM, PhD

The recent debate about the induction of women in the armed forces has been highly skewed and shallow. An issue that critically affects the fighting potential of the armed forces has been reduced to ‘equality of sexes’ and ‘women’s liberation’. Many ill-informed observers have trifled such a sensitive matter by terming it as ‘conquering the last male bastion’. Sadly, stances have been taken more on the basis of personal views and mind-sets rather than on well evolved logic. Both military and non-military experts are equally guilty in this regard.
In the recent past, the nation was shocked to hear a retired senior Army officer recommending constitution of all women battalions in the Indian Army. There cannot be a more preposterous and perilous proposition. It is equally common to hear the argument that if the Naxalites and LTTE can have women fighters, why the Indian armed forces should be reluctant to do so. Often people quote the number of American women fighting war in Iraq and Afghanistan to question India ’s stance against allowing women in combat. This article endeavours to remove some common misconceptions and put all issues in their proper perspective.

To start with, it needs to be stressed that the services carry no male chauvinistic mindset. The very fact that daughters of service officers have excelled in all fields proves that service officers do not suffer from any gender bias and are very supportive of women’s advancement. However, the issue of women’s induction in the services warrants singular treatment.

It will be instructive to take a look at the genesis of the issue. Earlier, entry of women was limited to the Army Medical Corps, the Army Dental Corps and the Military Nursing Service. In the early 90s, a service Chief visited the United States and saw women participating in Guards of Honour. He was suitably impressed and wondered why India should lag behind in this aspect. Thus the decision to induct women was neither need-based nor well thought-through. The first batch of women Short Service Commission (SSC) officers joined in 1992. No attempt was made to study likely long term implications of multiple issues involved and their effect on the fighting potential of the services. In other words, a decision of colossal significance was taken in a totally cavalier, slapdash and hasty manner. As the other two services did not want to be seen as ‘male-chauvinists’ , they followed suit. Soon a race got underway between the three services to induct women in maximum number of fields. It is only now that a plethora of complex issues are getting thrown up with resultant adverse fall-out.

Presently, the Indian Army counts 2.44 percent women in its ranks, the Indian Navy 3.0 percent and the Indian Air Force 6.7 percent. The tenure of women SSC officers has since been increased to 14 years. The Government has also approved grant of Permanent Commission to SSC (Women) officers prospectively in Judge Advocate General (JAG) Department and Army Education Corps (AEC) of Army and their corresponding Branch/Cadre in Navy and Air Force, Accounts Branch of the Air Force and Corps of Naval Constructors of the Navy.

Common Misconceptions and Facts


Women must get equal opportunities in the services

The concept of equality of sexes is unquestionable. Its application should, however, never affect the fighting potential of the armed forces. Two points need to be highlighted here. First, the armed forces are constituted for national defence and there can be no compromise on that issue. Secondly, the armed forces are not a ‘Rozgar Yojana’ to provide employment to all segments of the society in equal proportion. As it is a question of nation’s defence, the best man or woman should be selected for every job. In other words, women should be inducted in the services only if they add value or at least not affect it adversely. No right thinking individual can advocate women’s induction at the cost of the fighting potential. That would be disastrous for the country.

Interestingly, demand for equal opportunities is selective in nature. Women want to join only as officers and not as soldiers. Additionally, the concept of equality is given a go-by soon after commissioning. Applications for peace postings and other special dispensations proliferate. They join the military on the plank of equality of sexes but this plank vanishes the day they join the training academy. Thereafter, they again become the weaker sex needing special privileges.

· Women can perform all physical tasks as well as men

Standards of physical fitness of women can never be the same as those of men. It is a biological reality and is true for all fields including sports. In the case of women officers, Indian army has lowered the standards to appallingly low levels. Even then many women fail to qualify during their pre-commission training. Whereas male cadets are required to run 5 km in 28 minutes, women are given 40 minutes. Similarly, males are required to jump across a 9 feet wide ditch with full equipment and personal weapon; women have to negotiate only a 5 feet wide ditch. Worse, most women fail in the test.

All male officers and soldiers are subjected to annual Battle Physical Efficiency Tests till they attain the age of 45 years. No such tests have been prescribed for women officers to avoid embarrassment to them in front of the troops. Concerns have also been expressed about the susceptibility of Indian women to frequent back problems, pelvic injuries and stress fractures.

A recent review conducted by the British army concluded that women have neither the upper-body strength nor the physical resilience to withstand intensive combat. Tests in 2000 respondents found that women were eight times more likely than men to sustain injuries other than wounds in action.

Physical fitness is of lesser importance in modern fighting

Need for physical effort is dictated by two factors - level of technological development and nature of military’s involvement. Requirement for physical prowess undoubtedly reduces as the armies advance technologically. In other words, quantum of physical effort needed is inversely proportional to technological progression. Thus, as an army evolves technologically, more high-tech jobs get generated where technically qualified women can be gainfully employed. In a high-tech army like the US , a woman sitting in the US mainland can effectively guide drone attacks in Afghanistan . India on the other hand is still a second generation technology force which is trying desperately to graduate to the third generation. Indian defence forces are man-power intensive needing physical ground effort. India has very few high-tech jobs.

As regards degree and extent of a military’s involvement in active combat duties, countries like Canada and Australia face no internal or external threat and their militaries are generally in peacetime mode with routine passive duties. They can certainly afford to have a larger percentage of women in their forces. Contrast this with India where the majority of Army troops are deployed on active combat duties in remote, inhospitable and uncongenial areas. Only physically fit and tough troops can survive. Worse, peace tenures are short and there are very few periods of comparative lull.

Therefore, the Indian services continue to be physical-power intensive and will remain so in the near future. Only the very fit can survive to deliver in India ’s hostile environment.

The US has deployed a large number of women soldiers for fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Although a large number of women have been deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan , their employment has been confined to support functions. Although till the end of 2009, the US and allies had suffered a total of 4689 casualties, there has not been a single woman war casualty. Similarly, despite the fact that the US and allies have suffered 1555 casualties, not a single woman has lost her life in the Afghanistan war so far. Many people tend to confuse casualties due to hostile action with combat casualties. The US has lost 19 female servicemen in Iraq to hostile activities like car bombs, IED blasts and helicopter crashes since the beginning of 2007, but there has been no combat casualty. It is simply because of the fact no women are deployed in combat duties. As a matter of fact, they are forbidden to be placed in direct ground combat with enemy. They generally perform medical, intelligence, logistic and traffic control duties. Women are thus kept sheltered in safe appointments, away from the risk of capture by the adversary.

Even in Israel which has conscription for women (as well as men), women are not allotted active battle field duties. They serve in technical, administrative and training posts to release men for active duty.

If BSF can have an all women battalion to guard border, why not the Indian Army

The Border Security Force (BSF) has certainly raised an all women battalion and deployed it on the international border. However, the following important facts need to be highlighted: -

· The battalion is led by male officers and subordinate functionaries.
· The battalion has not been positioned on the Line of Control where firing and infiltration attempts are frequent. Instead, it has been deployed near Ferozepur on the International Border (IB) which is totally peaceful and where Indian and Pak troops routinely exchange sweets on festivals.
· Even on IB no independent sector has been entrusted to the women battalion. It has been superimposed on an existing male battalion. Importantly, women perform no night guard duties – these are performed by males.

Earlier, village women were not allowed to go across the border fence to cultivate their fields as no women sentries were available to frisk them. It was a sore point with the border folks. The sole purpose of raising the women battalion is to redress this long standing grievance. Their task is akin to what CISF women have been carrying out at the airports for long – frisking of women. Therefore, it will be incorrect to call the BSF battalion a fighting force.

Women officers help overcome the shortage of officers in the forces

It is an erroneous impression that there is a shortage of male volunteers for the services. As per the report of the Union Public Service Commission for 2006-07, there were a total of 5,49,365 candidates for 1724 vacancies for all civil services examinations with an Applicants to Post Ratio (APR) of 319. On the other hand, 3,41,818 candidates applied for 793 vacancies in the National Defence Academy (NDA), maintaining APR at a healthy 431. It implies that for every seat in NDA there were 431 applicants. Therefore, it is a fallacy that male volunteers are insufficient. It is just that the services seek very exacting standards for males while women are accepted with abysmally low standards.

Short service commission for women has proved highly productive

As a matter of fact, short service commission (normally extended to 10 years) has proved to be a totally wasteful and counter-productive exercise. Women normally get commissioned at the age of 23 to 25 years. Within two to three years of their commission, they get married, mostly to colleague male officers. Soon thereafter they start applying for peace postings on compassionate grounds to be with their husbands. Every pregnancy means three years’ exemption from physical activities – one year pre-natal and two years post-delivery. With the standard two-child norm, a women officer remains physically inactive for close to six years. It implies that after the first post-commission tenure, a woman officer is rarely in a position to participate in field exercises and has to be exempted all out-door work. Thus the services gain little.

In an informal interaction, a senior Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) questioned the rationale of granting SSC to women. “In the case of men, 25 to 35 years age span is most productive and grant of SSC is understandable. On the other hand, women have to raise their families during that period. By granting SSC to women, we have achieved nothing except increase the load on maternity wards of military hospitals,” he opined.

If women can fight as soldiers in LTTE and Naxalite outfits, why not in the services

Comparing irregular outfits with constitutionally created regular forces shows speciousness of the logic. In any case, even LTTE recruited women only after it fell short of male volunteers. Moreover, women held no high appointments and were generally used as pawns in indoctrinated suicide squads. If one was to carry the comparison forward, LTTE had recruited boys of 15 years to take up arms and act as human bombs. A lawfully structured formal organisation cannot be expected to follow suit.

Indian women officers have proved themselves and established their credibility as leaders

Not withstanding the public posturing of the services top brass, the experience so far has been highly discouraging. Superior male officers admire their enthusiasm despite the environmental difficulties, but are faced with the twin problems of their safety and useful employment. Additionally, as many duties (like night duty officer) cannot be assigned to women, male officers have to be given additional work load, which they resent. There are also concerns, based on Israeli studies, that soldiers first instinct may be to defend the women in their ranks rather than to fight the enemy.

Male officers also question the logic of having women only as officer. Indian officers pride themselves in the fact that they lead from the front and hence have to be better than their soldiers both physically and professionally. But, by having women only in the officer cadre an impression gets conveyed to the environment that officers’ duties are softer and can be carried out by women as well, thereby lowering their standing.

As per an informal survey carried out, 81 percent of the troops were convinced that women officers could never lead them in war efficiently. The balance 19 percent were unsure of their response. Acceptability of women as leaders was thus very poor. Another segment of respondents viewed the whole issue as a political gimmick which did not warrant serious attention. “How can the Government be naïve enough to think that a leader who cannot run, train and exercise with troops and lacks required physical fitness can lead them in war?” they query.

Women in Western forces are well accepted and adjusted

It is a fallacy. Acceptance of women in the military has not been smooth in any country. Despite efforts made to sensitise the environment, they continue to be confronted with social, behavioural and psychological problems at all levels. To date most countries do not allow women tank crews because of the cramped conditions and lack of privacy. There are also concerns about cramped living conditions on board submarines and dangers posed by fumes inside the submarine to a foetus if a woman becomes pregnant.

Sexual harassment and assaults of women soldiers is known to be blatant and quite prevalent in the US forces. A sexual harassment hotline set up at Aberdeen received 6,825 calls from women from all branches of the military in just two months. Hundreds of women are said to have complained of sexual assault in the forces since the beginning of Iraq war in 2003. Level of moral degradation can be gauged from the fact that ‘command rape’ has come to be accepted as a common phenomenon in the military - a superior official, under the might of his command authority, can force a subordinate woman soldier to accede to his sexual demands.
A joint survey carried out in 2006 in the UK by the Ministry of Defence and the Equal Opportunities Commission found that 67% of the respondents had experienced sexualised behaviour directed at them personally in the previous 12 months. Worse, over half of those who made a formal complaint stated that there had been negative consequences as a result of which 64% were considering leaving the services.
On the other hand, Indian armed forces can be rightfully proud of their record which is far better than that of any advanced nation in the world. Women are treated in a manner befitting their dignity and their safety is ensured.

India Needs to Exercise Caution

It is universally accepted that induction of women in the services should be dictated by the level of technology, prevailing security environment and the nature of likely deployment. Availability of adequate number of male volunteers is another major consideration.

India should follow a graduated approach. Women’s expertise, talent and competence should be profitably utilised in areas which are totally non-combat in nature. For the present, women must continue to play their established role in the medical, dental and nursing services, both as short service and permanent commission officers. However, they should not be granted short service commission in any other branch. The Government has rightly approved grant of permanent commission to women in legal and education departments of the three services, accounts branch of the Air Force and constructors of the Navy. Grant of permanent commission should also be considered for women in Survey of India, Military Engineering Service Militarised Cadre and Director General Quality Assurance.

The current policy of non-induction of women in combat arms should continue. Additionally, their entry into Engineers, Signals, Supply Corps, Ordnance and EME (Electrical and Mechanical Engineers) should be deferred till infusion of technology generates adequate number of high-tech jobs.

Finally, it should never be forgotten that the raison d'être for the constitution of the armed forces is to ensure security of the country. Decisions which have a far reaching effect on the defence potential of the armed forces must be taken with due diligence. Instead of replicating a model, India must chart its own policy. It has an experience of 18 years. Honest feedback must be sought to appreciate the true ground situation and initiate corrective measures. Most importantly, the military brass must show moral courage to admit that the present mess demands a holistic review of the policy, protestations of self-styled champions of gender-parity not withstanding. Decisions taken as a matter of political and populist expediency can prove disastrous for the nation in the long run. Defence matters cannot be treated as publicity gimmick to flaunt sexual equality.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

How to Fight TECHNOLOGY ADDICTION

Don't laugh.

Technology addiction is very real and very harmful.

It consumes thousands of people from every walk of life - even lawyers. Tech addicts report being RESTLESS when they're not sitting at a keyboard or holding their smart phones. And, when they're at the computer, they lose all sense of time. Their family and friends are often NEGLECTED.

Technology addiction is such a growing problem that experts have opened up the first residential treatment center in the United States. A $14,000 45-day stay at ReStart in Seattle can help people kick the habit of pathological computer and smart phone use.

Addiction Warning Signs

If you feel you have a handle on your technology use - think again. Just look at the TECHNOLOGY ADDICTION WARNING SIGNS:

■Preoccupation with thoughts of the Internet.
■Using the computer or smart phone longer than intended for increasing amounts of time.
■Repeatedly making unsuccessful efforts to control use.
■Putting time online before school or work.
Think about people - lawyers especially - who take calls, send text messages, or obsessively check their emails throughout the day and night. Maybe I'm describing you!

If you're teched-out lifestyle is wreaking havoc on your work-life balance, here are some ways to UNPLUG.

1. Restrictions

Put some restrictions on yourself when it comes to handing out your cell phone number. Give the number out to the most important clients and colleagues. This will cut down on the number of calls you receive, especially at night or during vacation.

2. Turn the smart phone OFF at home!

Emails come in on smart phones day and night. You DO NOT have to check them from home at 11 o'clock at night. Those emails will still be there in the morning.

Turn off your iPhone or BlackBerry at a set time every night. Remember, your nights belong to you - not your clients!

3. Set realistic email expectations.

You should not have to respond to client emails immediately. Instead, have your retainer agreement state that client emails will be responded to within "x" amount of time, unless the sender receives an "away" message. That message, in turn, should indicate how long you will be out of reach and whom to contact in an emergency.

These types of provisions will allow you to carve out more private time.

4. Unplug at work.

Many people get sidelined while preparing for important presentations or cases because they feel the need to respond to emails or browse the Internet.

Stop!

If there is a project that has to get done, turn off the email notification sound and pop-up window. Or, better yet, close Outlook so you aren't even tempted to wander from the task at hand. The same applies to smart phones.

Don't be chained to technology! Break the chains by setting your own hard and fast rules.

UNWIRE today before you become UNGLUED!

10 Common Networking Mistakes

10 Common Networking Mistakes

The professionals who are admired the most by their peers, are the ones who are great career advisors to the people in their networks.

To become the "go to" professional in your network, take care to avoid the following mistakes:

1) The "WIIFM" Mindset.
Having a "What's in it for me?" mindset will no only brand you as an amateur networker, but will make a lasting negative impression.

2) Not recognizing potential leads for your network.
Most professionals, when asked, cannot describe their clients' ideal customers.

3) Expecting an immediate quid pro quo.
Avoid the mindset of, "This person owes me." Remember, networking is a long-term process - your good deeds will pay off in time.

4) Failing to thank both attempted and successful referrals.
Don't become so busy with the new project you just landed from the referral you received, to thank the one who sent it to you.

5) Making reckless or low quality referrals.
A low quality referral will reflect negatively on you. Don't forget to follow up with both parties to see if they were happy with the introduction.

6) Not proactively promoting other people's services.
When you see an opportunity for someone in your network, and they are unavailable, instead of thinking, "Too bad they aren't here for this." take the time to market their service for them.

7) Failing to take time each week to help others.
I'm not talking about attending more networking meetings. Instead, I'm suggesting you keep the mindset of "being of service" to those in your network. E.g., If you read an article about a new development in a clients' industry - take the time to send the article to them with a short note.

8) Thinking short-term.
Too often professionals think they should only join groups that will bring business quickly. Expand your horizons - join social groups that match your interests. If you love riding Harleys, join a Harley Owners' group.

9) Not forming cross-network alliances.
For example, a local attorney who is married to a foreign national was frequently asked if he knew any immigration lawyers. After some time, and several missed opportunities, he developed a cross-referral arrangement with a local immigration attorney.

10) Making no effort to help people manage their careers.
If you want to make a friend for life, just spend time with someone who is "in transition" from one job to the next.

The Coach's questions -
Think of your top ten clients, can you describe an "ideal" lead for their businesses?

Have you ever written an unprompted letter to benefit someone in your network?

Monday, February 8, 2010

Confusing Signals for Investors

Confusing Signals for Investors
What a flood of confusing inputs for investors! It's the kind of time when you can build just about any hypothesis and find enough evidence to support it. Let me count off some of the major ones. In India, corporate results are better, but on a low base. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is going to tighten up credit because inflation is becoming a problem. But inflation won't respond to these measures. But the recovery has been robust. But credit off-take is slowing down. But the markets have spent a lot of time at these levels. But some sectors have run ahead of their real numbers. But the
PSU IPOs are great opportunities. But the PSU IPOs will suck money out of the secondary markets. But gold prices indicate a deeper problem. But all asset prices are inflated by the enormous gobs of liquidity that governments have dumped into their economies. But the global economy is through the worst. But there's a second wave of problems building up on the horizon - there was Dubai, now there will be Greece.
And that's not a comprehensive list by any means. As I said, there's enough evidence here to support just about any hypothesis. If you want to decide your course of action as an investor, then depending on who you are talking to, completely opposite things can be shown to be absolutely certain. However, it's the kind of time when, instead of getting confused by conflicting inputs, you should take the view that they are all wrong. Or rather, some random set of factors out of all these will turn out to be more important, but you won't know which ones till you can look back at them with 20-20 hindsight.
It would be much better to step aside and recognise that while all this is of great relevance to the talking heads and the editorial writers, the only reasonable course of action for investors would be something that doesn't involve dealing with this overload of information that falls well short if being useful. If you look back upon the last few years, it becomes absolutely self-evident that it's a complete waste of time trying to peer into this floating mess of tea leaves and try to predict the overall direction of the investment markets. However, what is not a waste of time for investors is to figure out which businesses are worth investing in.
Even if you had invested at the worst of times - say early in January, 2008 - but the investment itself was well-chosen, you would be fine today. Still a little down, but with no reason to be pessimistic. The converse is not true. And that's something that investors should take to heart. This vast fog of news is of little practical relevance, what really matters is choosing the right investments.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Islam Online: INTRODUCTION TO ISLAM (WHAT IS ISLAM?)

Islam Online: INTRODUCTION TO ISLAM (WHAT IS ISLAM?)

Islam is a religion, which guides its followers in every aspect of their lives. It is a way of life. Islam is the modern or latest version of the message sent by God through Adam, Noah, Abraham, Moses and Jesus, Islam was sent to mankind through Prophet Muhammad (pbuh).
Islam is "modern" in the sense that it has come to complement the teachings, which were introduced through Adam, Noah, Abraham, Moses and Jesus. Islam is a religion, which seeks to give a meaningful purpose to our life on this earth. Islam seeks to guide us in fulfilling that purpose by creating harmony between Creator, our fellow human beings and ourselves. What you will read below are some of the basic features of Islam.
Islam Online: THE ONE and ONLY GOD
Islam is a monotheistic religion. It teaches that there is only one God who is the origin and creator of the universe. This is the foundation stone of Islam, and is reflected in the famous sentence, which says that, "There is no god but Allah" (Allah is the Arabic name of God). The belief in God relates us to our origin and guides us throughout our life. The belief in one God shows that man should not worship any material thing or person in this universe. By teaching that there is only One God for all humans, Islam promotes the sense of brotherhood and equality in human society, all are equally related to God in the same way. The Holy Qur'an, the holy book of Islam, says:
Say: He is God, the One and Only, God the Eternal, Absolute; He begets not, nor is He begotten. And none is like Him. Holy Qur'an (Chapter
112)
Islam Online: THE PURPOSE OF LIFE
Our life on this earth has a specific purpose; it is not the result of nature's accident, nor is it a punishment for eating the fruit of the forbidden tree. We are here according to God's plan: the worldly life is a test; it is a chance to prove ourselves as deserving of the eternal blissful life in the hereafter. God did not create us just for few years of this life. To be created just for this world's life would amount to a joke played by the Creator with the human species.
Muhammad (pbuh), the Prophet of Islam, said, "You have not been created to perish; on the contrary, you have been created for eternal life." According to Islam, the final destination of mankind is the life hereafter. At the end of time, all human beings will be resurrected and will be held accountable for their worldly life: The life in hereafter will be an eternal life. However, whether it will be blissful or full of sorrow depends on how we spend our present life.
It was to help mankind in achieving this objective that God sent various prophets and messengers to guide them. Muhammad (pbuh) is the last prophet; and Islam is the final and complete version of God's message.
Islam Online: STATUS OF HUMAN BEINGS IN ISLAM PRIME CREATION: Human being is the prime creation of God. He says, "We have indeed honoured the children of Adam; spread them in the land and the sea, provided them with good things; and preferred them in esteem over many things that We have created." Holy Qur'an (17:70) BORN SINLESS: Islam teaches that every human being is born sinless; no child carries the burden of his or her ancestor's sins. God says, "And a burdened soul cannot bear the burden of another and if one weighed down by burden should cry for (another to carry) its burden, not aught of it shall be carried, even though he be near of kin." Holy Qur'an
(35:18) Each human being is born with a pure conscience, which can absorb and accept the true message of God. It is only the social and familial influences, which take a person away from God's message.
ACCOUNTABILITY: Islam also emphasizes on the issue of responsibility and accountability of human beings, each person is responsible for his or her own actions. Although Islam teaches that God has predetermined the span of our life and time of our death, but this does not mean that even our actions are predetermined by Him. We surely are free in our actions and are, therefore, accountable for them. God only provides guidance for us to know what is good and what is bad. He says, "Surely We have created man from a small life-germ uniting
(itself): We mean to try him, so We have made him hearing, seeing.
Surely We have shown him the way: he may be thankful or unthankful."
Holy Qur'an (76:2-3)
RAGE: Islam very categorically rejects racial discrimination. It promotes the feeling of brotherhood and equality among its followers.
God clearly says, "O you men! surely We have created you of a male and a female, and made you tribes and families that you may know each other; surely the most honorable of you with Allah is the one among you most careful (of his duty); surely Allah is Knowing, Aware." Holy Qur'an (49:13) Therefore, no one can claim any superiority over others based on racial or tribal differences. A person is to be judged by his character, not by his colour or race. God continues, "Surely the most honourable of you in God's sight is the person who is most upright in character among you". Holy Qur'an (49:13)
GENDER: Even gender does not count as a criterion of superiority. In Islam, a woman is as human as men. They are not evaluated on basis of their gender, but on basis of their faith and character. Fourteen hundred years ago, the Holy Qur'an recorded God's clear statements on this issue. Out of the four verses, I will just quote one: "Whoever, be it a male or a female, does good deeds and he or she is a believer, then they will enter the Paradise." Holy Qur'an (4:124) So there is no difference in the degree or level of woman's humanity or honour in Islam. The only difference there exists is concerning the role which Islam has envisioned for man and woman. This has nothing to do with superiority or inferiority. In Islam, man and woman are equal in rights; but equality is not synonymous to similarity. Islam believes that man and woman are equal but dissimilar. Islam looks at their different roles in society not as superior or inferior but as complementary to each other.
Islam Online: ISLAM THE RELIGION OF PEACE:
Islam is a religion of peace. This is evident even from the name "Islam" itself. ("Islam" is an Arabic word.) The word "Islam" and the Arabic word for peace, "salaam" both come from the same root, "salima". Muslims are taught to greet each other by saying "salamun alaykum (peace be upon you)." The daily prayers also end with the same sentence. In Islam, one of the names by which God is known is "Salaam", which means peace. However, one must realize that peace can never be achieved in vacuum. It is inter twined with justice. One can have peace only on basis of justice. "Justice" means putting everything in its rightful place. If one starts putting things in the wrong places, then he disrupts the social harmony and disturbs peace.
Islam seeks to promote peace on two levels:
1. Peace Within One's Self: A person can achieve inner peace by creating harmony and balance between his main emotions (desire and
anger) and his spiritual self. In other words, between his emotions and his conscience. Human's spiritual power or conscience is not a static phenomenon: it has the ability of growth as well as decadence.
God swears by the soul of human being and says, "He inspired to it to understand what is good and what is evil. Prosperous is the person who purifies it, and failed is he who seduces it." Holy Qur'an (91:10) 2. Peace With Others: Islam very strongly emphasizes on the rights, which people have over each other. It seeks to preserve peace in society by training and urging its followers to fulfill the rights of each other. In Islam, salvation is not possible by just fulfilling the rights of God; one has to fulfill the rights of other human beings also.
Unfortunately, because of the Middle Eastern events of last three decades, Islam has been branded by the media as a religion of violence. In recent years, the word "Islamic" has become one of the adjectives of "terrorism." In this back-drop, firstly, one must realize that the events in the Middle East can be fairly and fully understood only in the light of the post world war I history of that region, in particular the promises given by the British to the Arabs.
Secondly, no fair-minded person would allow himself to blame the religion of Islam for the wrong-doings of those who call themselves as Muslims. It is just like saying that the Catholic Church promotes violence and terrorism because of the Irish Republican Army's activities!

Islam Online: INTRODUCTION TO ISLAM (ISLAM THE RELIGION OF PEACE)

Islam is a monotheistic religion (believing in only one God) originating with the teachings of Prophet Muhammad (pbuh). Islam is the second-largest religion in the world today, with an estimated 1.5 billion adherents, spread across the globe, known as Muslims. Muslims form the majority in more than 50 countries of the world. Today Islam is the fastest growing faith in the world - its beautiful message is reaching millions in the far corner of the earth. One more meaning of the word "Islam" means "submission", referring to the total surrender of one's self to God, and the word Muslim means "one who submits (to God)".
Muslims believe that God revealed the Holy Qur'an to Prophet Muhammad
(pbuh) in the course of twenty three years as the final and last message to mankind through angel Gabriel (on whom be peace). The Holy Qur'an and the traditions of Prophet Muhammad (pbuh), Sunnah are regarded as the fundamental sources of Islam. Muslims do not regard Prophet Muhammad (pbuh) as the founder of a new religion, but as the restorer of the original monotheistic faith of Adam, Noah, Abraham, Moses, Jesus, and other prophets. Muslims hold that part of the messages of these prophets became distorted over time either in interpretation, in text, or both. Like Judaism, and Christianity, Islam is also an Abrahamic religion.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Fear of Losses

Fear of Losses

The latest issue of The Economist has an article about an experiment in behavioural economics. The management of a factory in China asked consultants to design a better incentive bonus system. Most of the consultants suggested fine-tuning the amount of bonus, but two behavioural economics researchers worked purely on the language of the letters through which workers were informed about their bonus.

As an experiment, one group was told that if they met certain targets, they would get a certain amount of money as a bonus. Another group was told that they had provisionally been awarded a certain amount of bonus based on their capabilities. However, if their work fell below certain targets, then they would lose the bonus. In reality, the two schemes were identical.

As researchers had suspected, workers who had been given the provisional bonus were much better at meeting the targets. The fear of losing something you already have is much stronger than the motivation to gain something new. This loss-avoidance urge is well-known to behavioural researchers in other areas like investments.

The loss-avoidance urge is not a fringe phenomenon. It is absolutely central to what makes a good equity investor. The idea that some of the money you have earned may go away at any point is difficult to accept. There's a friend of mine who has been a steadily successful equity investor over many years now. He has this mental concept of 'market ka paisa' and 'mera paisa'. He divides the total worth of his equity investments at any point into these two categories, and generally considers about a fifth of the value to belong to 'the market', which the market can take back whenever it wants to.

This has always enabled him to think clear-headedly about what he should be doing at any given time and has prevented knee-jerk reactions every time there's some volatility. In my experience, investors either have this kind of a mental framework or they tend to take wrong decisions under pressure. This is the kind of instinct that makes people sell off their investments after they have dropped and then not invest again till the climate has changed, thus making their losses permanent. As an investor, either one should have the self-awareness and the self-control to modify one's loss-aversion instinct, or one should go for investment products that are not prone to volatility. These can span conventional fixed deposit, or post office, type of products, or they could be products that have some type of equity elements. For example, there are some capital-protection oriented funds as well as funds that invest only gains from fixed income into equity.

Such schemes offer only a fraction of the gains that real equity products do, but they do earn more than pure fixed income while offering peace of mind, thereby catering to the loss-aversion instinct.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Predicting Markets

Cocktail Theory : Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch has been one of the most successful investors and fund managers of all times and his book: ONE UP ON WALL STREET is a terrific and delightful book. Not only is the book a fine example of the wit, experience and knowledge; it is an easy read, and you can breeze through it.
Anyone who is serious about investing and can spare the cash must read it. This post discusses one delightful theory that Peter Lynch discusses, and I am sure if we look hard enough we can find similar examples from our daily life and relate to what he is saying.
Lynch calls it “The Cocktail Theory”. This theory is developed by Lynch for forecasting markets and has done so by standing in the middle of living rooms listening to what people have to say.
In the first stage of an upward market where the market has been down for some time and no one expects it to rise again people are generally not talking about the markets. When someone asks Lynch what he does for a living and he tells them that he manages a fund they nod politely and move away to talk to the dentist about plaque.
Lynch says that if people would much rather talk to the dentist about plaque than to a fund manager about stock it is likely that the market is going to go up.
In stage two, when the market has risen about 15 - 25 %, but still only a very few people have noticed it, the new acquaintances linger a bit longer with Lynch telling him how risky the market is before moving away to the dentist to discuss plaque.
In stage three with the market up 40-50%, Lynch says that he is surrounded by enthusiastic investors asking for tips, and even the dentist is looking for some tips from him, and everyone has their money invested at one place or the other.
In stage four Lynch is surrounded again, but this time people are not asking him what to buy, they are telling him what to buy ! The dentist has a tip or two of his own too, and in the next few days it’s likely that the dentist’s recommendation goes up.
This Lynch says is a sure sign that the market has reached the top, and is due for a tumble.
Lynch issues a caveat at the end of the theory saying that the key to investing is to buy great companies and not predicting markets.
In fact he categorically states that he does not believe in predicting the markets. Each one of us who has stayed in the market to witness at least one cycle would find a similar example to what Lynch gives and would easily relate to what he says.
I am sure you can use this simple, yet effective technique to find out what are the sentiments in the stock markets.
You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets
- Peter Lynch