Buy STEELCO STRIPS (513530) with target 61 stoploss 37
Buy aggressively Brahmanand (590081) target 220 stoploss 167
Buy BILPOWER (531590-BSE/NSE listed) at 209 short term target 310
Buy SELMCL with target of 600
Friday, May 30, 2008
Monday, May 26, 2008
Mkt View - 26 May 08
Hi Friends,
Another rude week witnessed in the Indian stock markets thanks to movement of the crude oil.But at the end of the week traders were a worried lot worrying that is it only crude or is there something more then what meets the eyes.
Nifty is witnessing panic is what a day trader will tell you.But the undercurrent of portfolio selling is more visible in front line stocks as compared to the small cap stocks.Indeed to be very truthful small cap stocks under my coverage are substantially higher as compared to a month ago.While nifty has given a negative return in may till date.Midcaps under our coverage have actually given positive returns .
In one of my recent issues I had covered that i dont expect crude to cross 135$ a barrel.Crude is showing resistance at somewhere near those levels.Personally i believe its time to take some profits for short term from oil exploration companies and similar businesses.
Coming back to Nifty i strongly believe that if markets manages to hold 4850 -4871 band we might see a sharp rebound in Nifty.factors to watch out for will be FNO expiry and the movement of crude oil from here on.Also there is a holiday on Monday so it will be a free move by the domestic operators for the INDIAN stock markets on Tuesday.
Another rude week witnessed in the Indian stock markets thanks to movement of the crude oil.But at the end of the week traders were a worried lot worrying that is it only crude or is there something more then what meets the eyes.
Nifty is witnessing panic is what a day trader will tell you.But the undercurrent of portfolio selling is more visible in front line stocks as compared to the small cap stocks.Indeed to be very truthful small cap stocks under my coverage are substantially higher as compared to a month ago.While nifty has given a negative return in may till date.Midcaps under our coverage have actually given positive returns .
In one of my recent issues I had covered that i dont expect crude to cross 135$ a barrel.Crude is showing resistance at somewhere near those levels.Personally i believe its time to take some profits for short term from oil exploration companies and similar businesses.
Coming back to Nifty i strongly believe that if markets manages to hold 4850 -4871 band we might see a sharp rebound in Nifty.factors to watch out for will be FNO expiry and the movement of crude oil from here on.Also there is a holiday on Monday so it will be a free move by the domestic operators for the INDIAN stock markets on Tuesday.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Psychology of trading the markets
Asking anyone who has traded any financial market longer than 5 years if psychology plays a big role while trading ? A good 99 % will tell you that it is the key to survival !
Let us give you the key to successful trading any financial market:
Tools
Just like any trade having the right tools is essential. Right tools - good internet connection, access to a trading platform with live data, understand of technical analysis, mental psychology and of course trading capital.
System / Planning
Having a system to follow is essential to survive in the market. Please never place a trade unless you know first where your exit price and your entry price will be.
Money exposure / Control
Never risk more than you can afford. Once you have depleted your trading capital the game is over. The whole idea is to take a trade by minimising the risk by protecting your capital and riding the winning open positions.
Positive Psychology
This applies to anything you wish to do in life. In the financial world having a positive psychology is essential. Stick to the plan and don't let market noise (intraday price movement) slap you around.
If you cannot control your emotions, then your emotions will control you and your actions. When this happens, irrational decisions are made. Your not longer concentrating on your overall goal because your fighting to control your emotions fear and greed. From our experience you end up selling to early or buying too late !
Trading is 80% psychology and 20% work.
Let us give you the key to successful trading any financial market:
Tools
Just like any trade having the right tools is essential. Right tools - good internet connection, access to a trading platform with live data, understand of technical analysis, mental psychology and of course trading capital.
System / Planning
Having a system to follow is essential to survive in the market. Please never place a trade unless you know first where your exit price and your entry price will be.
Money exposure / Control
Never risk more than you can afford. Once you have depleted your trading capital the game is over. The whole idea is to take a trade by minimising the risk by protecting your capital and riding the winning open positions.
Positive Psychology
This applies to anything you wish to do in life. In the financial world having a positive psychology is essential. Stick to the plan and don't let market noise (intraday price movement) slap you around.
If you cannot control your emotions, then your emotions will control you and your actions. When this happens, irrational decisions are made. Your not longer concentrating on your overall goal because your fighting to control your emotions fear and greed. From our experience you end up selling to early or buying too late !
Trading is 80% psychology and 20% work.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Perfecting Perfection - By Andy Carpenter
Nothing in life is perfect. In fact, to write such a sentence means most of my life must be pretty darned all right.
After a too long and too snowy winter, I am, today sitting on the back porch with laptop in lap. Yeah, the WIFI signal just barely makes it out to here… the G5 in my office is hardwired to the Internet so it's blazingly faster.
But, I am enveloped by the sudden warmth that has temporarily descended upon Boston… teasing us with implications of what's too come.
Of course, it has been warm and dry, so I am crushed under the weight of pollen, which makes me ache, and sneeze, and itch and occasionally gasp for breath.
The garish-yellow forsythia are gloriously in bloom, but they draw my eye to vast sections of the yard that didn't get raked last fall because the snow came too early. Those damned oak trees in the west that help keep the house so cool in the summer also dump millions of leaves all fall.
But, man is it nice to be semi outside. It's even possible, on occasion, above the din created by the 10 or so lawn crews working in the neighborhood at this moment, to hear a woodpecker hunting food… a robin and finch chatting with their peers.
So, nothing is ever exactly right… well, in the big picture that is. Because, moments can be perfect as long as you're ready to appreciate them.
The Perfect Investment Moment
That search for the perfect moment is of course a dangerous thing for investors. There is never a prefect moment to place your hope and money on a stock, bond, business or real estate investment.
Even if you've done your homework in regards to the risk you'll take, you can easily find a negative voice – a gloomy outlook – at just about every turn. In fact, those are the voices that seem to be shouting the loudest.
This is especially true with stock investing.
In fact, the loudest voices during the past three or four years seem to be the ones within the financial media that are trying to convince you that buy and hold – the strategy in which you buy solid companies and pretty much forget about them – is a stupid way to invest today.
Now, I will agree that if your tolerance for risk is high and you play penny stocks or other risky speculations that you should constantly have your hand on the pulse of those trades. That's the price you pay for accepting a high-risk potentially high-reward position.
But anyone who espouses that buy and hold is dead is peddling you bunk. And, it's repackaged bunk at that. For these death-to-buy-and-holders were likely the very same characters who, during the past 20 years, have tried to sell you Internet, tech, gold and the change from pension funds to 401ks as radical new investment paradigms… that holds for China, too, my area of expertise.
Investment Attention Deficit Disorder
You see, it's imperative for the investment crowd that flits from fad to fad to sell you on the critical notion that buy and hold is dead… how the hell else can they convince you to follow their flights of fancy.
I see a lot of this new paradigm crap surrounding China investing. I once, for about seven months, was even involved with a newsletter that peddled such bunk. It was not a happy partnership. The divorce cost me a small fortune in money left behind.
Of course, the reality today is that China has graduated from an investment trend to an investment reality. And, that's not a new paradigm.
If anything, it's an extremely old paradigm. And it will take the usual amount of work to separate the good from the bad and downright criminal, just like it does with the 10,000 or so US-based stocks that trade every day. Come on now, do you really believe that all those OTCBB and Pink Sheet companies are run by patriotic Americans whose sense of fiduciary duty extends to taking your money and making it grow?
If you do, have I got a Chinese granite mining stock for you, or a Chinese fertilizer outfit… or a (a thankfully formerly traded) public company that wanted you to finance its drive to sell chewable vitamins to Chinese children.
Shift This
You see, just as it is with European, German and Indian stock markets, the US stock market is home to every sort of scam, including those from China.
That's the way it is with investments that are sold as major paradigm shifts. Instead of frank talk about China, the majority of what the financial press and publishers feed you is useless pie-in-the-sky stuff (and yes I approved my newsletter's marketing in case you think I am peddling it ala mode) or useless news such as what the Shanghai Stock Exchange is doing.
The media peddlers are only in two moods… bubble up or bubble down.
That makes the deal with China exactly the same as the deal with Silicon Valley or Austin, Texas. It's a simple proposition.
Do you easily understand what it is that a Chinese company does? Is it more than a story… or does it at least admit it is just a story, now? Are its financial reports up to date and audited with generally accepted accounting practices? Does its management seem stable and adept? Do you understand the risk?
Would you buy and hold this stock?
See, China may be an emerging market that allows you access to tons of new public companies, but it is not exotic.
But, churning and burning your portfolio is.
So, let's put this silly, death-to-buy-and-hold mindset behind us now.
Anyone who's peddling you that hokum merely wants access to your wallet… nothing more.
Regards,
After a too long and too snowy winter, I am, today sitting on the back porch with laptop in lap. Yeah, the WIFI signal just barely makes it out to here… the G5 in my office is hardwired to the Internet so it's blazingly faster.
But, I am enveloped by the sudden warmth that has temporarily descended upon Boston… teasing us with implications of what's too come.
Of course, it has been warm and dry, so I am crushed under the weight of pollen, which makes me ache, and sneeze, and itch and occasionally gasp for breath.
The garish-yellow forsythia are gloriously in bloom, but they draw my eye to vast sections of the yard that didn't get raked last fall because the snow came too early. Those damned oak trees in the west that help keep the house so cool in the summer also dump millions of leaves all fall.
But, man is it nice to be semi outside. It's even possible, on occasion, above the din created by the 10 or so lawn crews working in the neighborhood at this moment, to hear a woodpecker hunting food… a robin and finch chatting with their peers.
So, nothing is ever exactly right… well, in the big picture that is. Because, moments can be perfect as long as you're ready to appreciate them.
The Perfect Investment Moment
That search for the perfect moment is of course a dangerous thing for investors. There is never a prefect moment to place your hope and money on a stock, bond, business or real estate investment.
Even if you've done your homework in regards to the risk you'll take, you can easily find a negative voice – a gloomy outlook – at just about every turn. In fact, those are the voices that seem to be shouting the loudest.
This is especially true with stock investing.
In fact, the loudest voices during the past three or four years seem to be the ones within the financial media that are trying to convince you that buy and hold – the strategy in which you buy solid companies and pretty much forget about them – is a stupid way to invest today.
Now, I will agree that if your tolerance for risk is high and you play penny stocks or other risky speculations that you should constantly have your hand on the pulse of those trades. That's the price you pay for accepting a high-risk potentially high-reward position.
But anyone who espouses that buy and hold is dead is peddling you bunk. And, it's repackaged bunk at that. For these death-to-buy-and-holders were likely the very same characters who, during the past 20 years, have tried to sell you Internet, tech, gold and the change from pension funds to 401ks as radical new investment paradigms… that holds for China, too, my area of expertise.
Investment Attention Deficit Disorder
You see, it's imperative for the investment crowd that flits from fad to fad to sell you on the critical notion that buy and hold is dead… how the hell else can they convince you to follow their flights of fancy.
I see a lot of this new paradigm crap surrounding China investing. I once, for about seven months, was even involved with a newsletter that peddled such bunk. It was not a happy partnership. The divorce cost me a small fortune in money left behind.
Of course, the reality today is that China has graduated from an investment trend to an investment reality. And, that's not a new paradigm.
If anything, it's an extremely old paradigm. And it will take the usual amount of work to separate the good from the bad and downright criminal, just like it does with the 10,000 or so US-based stocks that trade every day. Come on now, do you really believe that all those OTCBB and Pink Sheet companies are run by patriotic Americans whose sense of fiduciary duty extends to taking your money and making it grow?
If you do, have I got a Chinese granite mining stock for you, or a Chinese fertilizer outfit… or a (a thankfully formerly traded) public company that wanted you to finance its drive to sell chewable vitamins to Chinese children.
Shift This
You see, just as it is with European, German and Indian stock markets, the US stock market is home to every sort of scam, including those from China.
That's the way it is with investments that are sold as major paradigm shifts. Instead of frank talk about China, the majority of what the financial press and publishers feed you is useless pie-in-the-sky stuff (and yes I approved my newsletter's marketing in case you think I am peddling it ala mode) or useless news such as what the Shanghai Stock Exchange is doing.
The media peddlers are only in two moods… bubble up or bubble down.
That makes the deal with China exactly the same as the deal with Silicon Valley or Austin, Texas. It's a simple proposition.
Do you easily understand what it is that a Chinese company does? Is it more than a story… or does it at least admit it is just a story, now? Are its financial reports up to date and audited with generally accepted accounting practices? Does its management seem stable and adept? Do you understand the risk?
Would you buy and hold this stock?
See, China may be an emerging market that allows you access to tons of new public companies, but it is not exotic.
But, churning and burning your portfolio is.
So, let's put this silly, death-to-buy-and-hold mindset behind us now.
Anyone who's peddling you that hokum merely wants access to your wallet… nothing more.
Regards,
Mkt View - 13 May 08
Hi Friends,
As mentioned by us a number of times before the fundamental valuations of the Indian stock market is deteriorating every quarter.This is the utmost significant factor in any bear phase.Past bear moves have witnessed sound fundamental economic conditions to back the Bull run.Yesterdays IIP data was one of the indicators the bears might be looking for.Coming back to the Nifty yesterdays low of 4913 is an important trend line level going ahead.All longs in markets should be having 4913 as automatic sl levels.Markets reacted positively after the sharp fall witnessed due to the IIP numbers.Prima facie the reason being the short covering lead by the bears who made the market fall by over 7% in past one week.One stock I am positive at current levels is ABB. Factors to watch out for today will be the sustainability of the rally at higher levels today.Tonight in U.S Ben Bernanke will speak on Fed liquidity measures.Going ahead factors to watch out for will be the resurgence of the capital goods sector in the Indian bull Market.
Nifty supports 4983-5011
Resistance -5062-5083
As mentioned by us a number of times before the fundamental valuations of the Indian stock market is deteriorating every quarter.This is the utmost significant factor in any bear phase.Past bear moves have witnessed sound fundamental economic conditions to back the Bull run.Yesterdays IIP data was one of the indicators the bears might be looking for.Coming back to the Nifty yesterdays low of 4913 is an important trend line level going ahead.All longs in markets should be having 4913 as automatic sl levels.Markets reacted positively after the sharp fall witnessed due to the IIP numbers.Prima facie the reason being the short covering lead by the bears who made the market fall by over 7% in past one week.One stock I am positive at current levels is ABB. Factors to watch out for today will be the sustainability of the rally at higher levels today.Tonight in U.S Ben Bernanke will speak on Fed liquidity measures.Going ahead factors to watch out for will be the resurgence of the capital goods sector in the Indian bull Market.
Nifty supports 4983-5011
Resistance -5062-5083
Monday, May 12, 2008
Mkt View - 12 May 08
Hi friends,
Last weak the movements of the markets were no less then a night mare.A horror drama created with the help of the inflation numbers,crude oil and the Fiscal measures of the government.Crude oil seems to have changed its name to rude oil and is according to our technical analysis team is on the last wave of its multi year bull run.We expect a correction in the crude oil and going ahead expect it to top around 130-135$ for the coming quarters.Coming back to the markets.We are seeing a mayhem in the month of may in the markets.Going ahead 4930-4890 should be the sl for any longs in the market.Below that the next support is only at 4750 zone.One needs to be highly cautious going forward.One of the reasons for the sudden fall in Rpl,Reliance industry is the fall observed in the Singapore GRM .As per some unconfirmed reports the Grms has fallen on Friday to around 0.8$ per barrel.Kindly note that the reports are totally unconfirmed but the sudden fall of 5% in Ril and 8% in Rpl might verify the same.Going ahead the IIP numbers and the Inflation data will be the key factors in Indian markets.Similarly the week sees an unending news flow of data from USA beginning Tuesday.Tuesday - Ben Bernanke speaks on Fed liquidity measures, Retail sales for April.Wednesday-Weekly petroleum stocks and output data, Thursday - Weekly jobless claims, at the Labor Department, Friday - Consumer sentiment for May, Housing starts for April .
Weekly nifty supports 4910-4760
Resistance -5075-5121
Last weak the movements of the markets were no less then a night mare.A horror drama created with the help of the inflation numbers,crude oil and the Fiscal measures of the government.Crude oil seems to have changed its name to rude oil and is according to our technical analysis team is on the last wave of its multi year bull run.We expect a correction in the crude oil and going ahead expect it to top around 130-135$ for the coming quarters.Coming back to the markets.We are seeing a mayhem in the month of may in the markets.Going ahead 4930-4890 should be the sl for any longs in the market.Below that the next support is only at 4750 zone.One needs to be highly cautious going forward.One of the reasons for the sudden fall in Rpl,Reliance industry is the fall observed in the Singapore GRM .As per some unconfirmed reports the Grms has fallen on Friday to around 0.8$ per barrel.Kindly note that the reports are totally unconfirmed but the sudden fall of 5% in Ril and 8% in Rpl might verify the same.Going ahead the IIP numbers and the Inflation data will be the key factors in Indian markets.Similarly the week sees an unending news flow of data from USA beginning Tuesday.Tuesday - Ben Bernanke speaks on Fed liquidity measures, Retail sales for April.Wednesday-Weekly petroleum stocks and output data, Thursday - Weekly jobless claims, at the Labor Department, Friday - Consumer sentiment for May, Housing starts for April .
Weekly nifty supports 4910-4760
Resistance -5075-5121
Monday, May 5, 2008
Mkt View - 05 May 08
Hi Friends,
A continuous weekly gain for the Nifty was witnessed in last four weeks.Nifty is seeing as of now a U shaped recovery.I thought its best time to analyze Nifty using the strength of its components and some of the trading favorites.L&T=Stock has closed above its 50Dma on Friday and can further move towards its 200dma in coming days.its 200day simple moving average is at 3345Reliance=actual strength provider for the markets to recover.Grasim= company is just 20 rs above its 52 week low price.Stock can give a small 10% bounce after making a fresh low.Infosys technology=Real time resistance at 1900 levels will be very difficult for the stock to cross the sameTcs=Weakest in large cap It names.Stock has to close above 1000 to show real strength.Rel= stock is above both 50dma and 200dma .Can hit 1800 levels in coming days.If it hits those levels will be the biggest surprise of 2008.Tata power= stock looking good above 1430 levels 1470 and 1510 levels are next resistance levelsBharti airtel= Stock looks good for 1000+ in coming days.Acc=Technically looks weak,Stock poised to move to 700 levels in coming days.Sail= technically the stock looks weak.Closing below 192 levels is negative for the stock in short term.Going forward i will cover some more stocks in my market notes and Niftyviews section.To summarize companies associated with cement,steel are technically not that strong.Grasim is just 20 rs above its 52 week low and a small bear run will make it show new 52 week lows.Going ahead the major event for the markets is inflation data on Friday and economic numbers coming out from overseas.Moreover there will be subscribers numbers being announced by Telcos.Cement dispatch numbers and crude steel production numbers by jsw.One factor worth noticing for the markets is that there is a sector rotation visible in managing and moving the index on the higher side.Technology,Steel,Oil& gas,Pharma,Fmcg,banks and Real estate sector.Expect some more sector rotation before the Nifty starts correcting.5368 is a double top witnessed in the recovery rally in Nifty.It will be difficult for the markets to breakout from those levels.I personally expect Nifty to show a 2-3 days small correction.
Nifty support 5211-5196
Nifty resistance 5259-5281
A continuous weekly gain for the Nifty was witnessed in last four weeks.Nifty is seeing as of now a U shaped recovery.I thought its best time to analyze Nifty using the strength of its components and some of the trading favorites.L&T=Stock has closed above its 50Dma on Friday and can further move towards its 200dma in coming days.its 200day simple moving average is at 3345Reliance=actual strength provider for the markets to recover.Grasim= company is just 20 rs above its 52 week low price.Stock can give a small 10% bounce after making a fresh low.Infosys technology=Real time resistance at 1900 levels will be very difficult for the stock to cross the sameTcs=Weakest in large cap It names.Stock has to close above 1000 to show real strength.Rel= stock is above both 50dma and 200dma .Can hit 1800 levels in coming days.If it hits those levels will be the biggest surprise of 2008.Tata power= stock looking good above 1430 levels 1470 and 1510 levels are next resistance levelsBharti airtel= Stock looks good for 1000+ in coming days.Acc=Technically looks weak,Stock poised to move to 700 levels in coming days.Sail= technically the stock looks weak.Closing below 192 levels is negative for the stock in short term.Going forward i will cover some more stocks in my market notes and Niftyviews section.To summarize companies associated with cement,steel are technically not that strong.Grasim is just 20 rs above its 52 week low and a small bear run will make it show new 52 week lows.Going ahead the major event for the markets is inflation data on Friday and economic numbers coming out from overseas.Moreover there will be subscribers numbers being announced by Telcos.Cement dispatch numbers and crude steel production numbers by jsw.One factor worth noticing for the markets is that there is a sector rotation visible in managing and moving the index on the higher side.Technology,Steel,Oil& gas,Pharma,Fmcg,banks and Real estate sector.Expect some more sector rotation before the Nifty starts correcting.5368 is a double top witnessed in the recovery rally in Nifty.It will be difficult for the markets to breakout from those levels.I personally expect Nifty to show a 2-3 days small correction.
Nifty support 5211-5196
Nifty resistance 5259-5281
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)